Ali Kwazoor’s choice
Prince Ali Kwazoor of Zuristan had been on a long and dangerous journey.
He had sailed stormy seas and crossed burning deserts! He had fought
fierce dragons and evil monsters! But now his journey was nearly over.
He had reached the Mountain of Darkness. And there, in a cave on the
mountainside, was the thing he had journeyed so long and far to
find—the great Treasure of Samarkand!
As Prince Ali started into the cave, an old man in a flowing robe
suddenly appeared.
“Hold, Prince Ali!” cried the old man. “I am the Wise Man of Hind, the
guardian of the great treasure! You must face one last test before you
can have the Treasure of Samarkand!”
aw
The Wise Man held out two boxes. One box was red, the other yellow.
“In the red box there are four pebbles—one black pebble and three
white ones,” said the Wise Man. “In the yellow box there are seven
pebbles—three black ones and four white ones. Without looking, you
must take a pebble from one of the boxes. If you pick a black pebble,
the treasure is yours. But if you pick a white pebble, you will leave no
richer than you came!”
What would you do if you were Prince Ali? Of course, picking a black
pebble would be just pure luck. But which box would give him the best
chance to pick a black pebble? Ali thought for a moment. Then he had the
answer. Do you know which box he decided to pick from?
In the red box there were four pebbles—one of them black. That gave
Ali one chance out of four to pick a black pebble. The yellow box had
seven pebbles—three of them black. That gave Ali three chances out of
seven. Of course, three chances out of seven, or \’i, is more than one
chance out of four, or So Ali picked a pebble from the yellow box.
You can see for yourself how \| gives you more chances than j does. Put
seven pieces of paper, four white pieces and three colored pieces, in a
box or hat. Without peeking, pick one piece of paper from the box and
then put it back. Do this fifty times. Keep track of the number of times
you pick a colored piece. Now do the same thing with four pieces of
paper, three white and one colored. You’ll find that you picked a
colored piece more times from the box that has seven pieces of paper in
it than you did from the box that has four pieces.
But what about Prince Ali? Why, he picked a black pebble, of course, and
went home with the great Treasure of Samarkand!
